Singled out for lockdown

As Leicester begins at least an extra two weeks in lockdown, the big unknown factor is whether the majority of its population of 300,000 will adhere to the rules.

The city has largely been compliant thus far. There have been no mass gatherings outside the King Power Stadium, and people have largely gone about their business in the right manner.

But there is a quiet resentment at the city being singled out – and the lingering suspicion there is something deeper at play here: namely that Leicester is being made an example ahead of the more general easing of restrictions on July 4, which has been dubbed somewhat crassly as 'Inn-dependence Day' by a prime minister who has been found wanting throughout the crisis.

Many in Leicester feel the situation, while worrying, has been poorly analysed. The figures are high, but from a low base. Virus testing has been increased through an injection of facilities and help from troops.

The Labour mayor, Sir Peter Soulsby, who has his fair share of critics, has some sympathy here in that he is unconvinced by the need for the tighter lockdown.

It seems more a political imperative from a Government worried by scenes of people swamping the beaches last week and fearing the further release of lockdown measures, including the reopening of pubs, my uncork a rush of new cases nationwide.

The infection breakout has mostly been in the east of the city. The red line shows the area of lockdown

Locking down Leicester demonstrates that they are prepared to row back on some measures. But the truth is, as some Government experts have warned, that there will be an inevitable spike in cases as it hurries moves to get the country back to some kind of normal.

There seems to be balancing act going on: how many deaths from Covid-19 will the country bear in order to get businesses going again. The next few weeks in Leicester may show how much longer the city will bear a lockdown not being put upon any other place in England. And let us stress that this is an English problem at present. Scotland has been far more measured in its approach and its devolved government appears to have a better grip than No.10 has shown at any point.

All too often the Government has been chasing its tail, playing catch-up, and many more have died as a result. Late to recognise the danger of the virus, late to lock down (not that we had a lockdown in the manner of Spain or Italy), late to protect care homes, late to supply adequate amounts of PPE.

Then toss into the mix constant muddled messaging from Government. It has been happening so often that the suspicion is that it is partly deliberate, to shift the blame from Government to a confused population.

You could write a latter-day Yes Minister series on this. Only it is not funny. Too many have lost loved ones. Too many are now left with potentially long-term health issues after surviving the virus, with scarred lungs, lack or mobility and breathlessness. Too many are stressed, anxious and suffering varying degrees of trauma that an underfunded mental health system won't be able to anywhere near address.

And they know how the state treats those with disabilities. If they don't they are about to find out.

Can a local lockdown work? On Day 1, in the west of the city, there was no evidence of any enforcement. Special new powers are required and they should be in place within 48 hours, we are told.

Leicester City were Premier League champions in 2016 and it seemed the whole city turned out to greet the team.

Civil disobedience in Leicester could be particularly unpleasant if it becomes tribal. Some 37 per cent of the population is of South Asian descent. The infection seems to be highest among those it most affects – chiefly because they live in overcrowded conditions, large family groups and in often poor housing. There have long been health and poverty issues playing out in these areas.

Some community leaders I have seen on the news or online feel very resentful at being singled out. One, who worked preparing bodies for funerals and he and his colleagues were overwhelmed at the start of the crisis, says he hasn't seen a Covid-related death in three weeks. The figures seem to suggest younger people – average aged of 33 – are being affected by this latest outbreak and they are less likely to suffer as badly, assuming they do not have underlying health issues.

Leicester is a largely well integrated city. You only had to be on the streets when Leicester City, the 5,000-1 outsiders, won the Premier League a few years back. It was a true multi-ethnic mix.

Narborough Road, one of the city's main thoroughfares out to the newly-expanding Fosse Park shopping centre, boats businesses run by people from 27 different ethnic backgrounds, from Turkey to the Philippines, Lebanon to Romania. It is a melting pot perhaps unlike anywhere else in the UK.

But tensions bubble over – there has been trouble even between Hindus and Sikhs as tensions on the sub-Continent have risen.

And there will be some in the white community – one can't guess how many, though there has been much chatter on social media - who will be angry at having their lives disrupted by a problem that is predominently in a few areas of the city.

That could yet manifest itself in civil disobedience. And it could not have come at a worse time, when friends from neighbouring areas will be enjoying a new sense of freedom from Saturday, as pubs elsewhere open.

Indeed, one in the nearby village of Broughton Astley plans to open at a minute past midnight on Saturday – effectively still Friday night.

Shops selling non-essential items and

The city centre is deserted again as the lockdown is extended for two weeks

which have been opened only a few weeks and had been gearing up for more relaxed social distancing, have been ordered to close again. For some smaller businesses, particularly hairdressers and those in the beauty and hospitality sector, unless there is the promised financial support, this extended closure may be a step too far and they may never reopen at all. They fear that a fortnight's extension to the lockdown (to be reviewed later) may not be deemed enough to have quell any rising outbreak in the city.

Before Matt Hancock's on-off-on announcement, it had been rumoured that just certain parts in the East of the city might be locked down. But it seems during a day of discussions, it was decided such a move would be impractical and might be viewed as prejudicial.

The Government is clearly walking a tightrope of not wanting to get heavy handed with those not conforming with lockdown rules. Some police forces, notably in Derbyshire, overstepped their powers in the first days of the lockdown, issuing fines, and they face many challenges with the widely-held belief that the lockdown, when it is eased on Saturday everywhere in England bar my city, will be effectively over.

Social distancing is being reduced from 2 metres to 1 metre-plus, more non-essential shops can open, along with pubs, restaurants and hairdressers, though not swimming pools and beauty parlours – and while people can mix in greater numbers, many still can't hug elderly parents who have been shielding.

Now there is the nervous wait to see if the local lockdown holds. Boris Johnson has gambled much on it doing so, since being widely judged to have failed to initiate the lockdown in the first place, leading to 60,000 deaths, many in care homes.

The fear is that, when the partying begins this weekend, for the rest of England, many from Leicester will go farther afield to join in, and risk spreading the virus. If so, it could lead to the lockdown being reversed more widely. That would deal a massive blow to the government's strategy to get life – and business in particular – back to a kind of normal after almost four months.

The stakes are particularly hight for Mr Johnson, whose approval ratings were this week eclipsed by the new Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, and with Tory backbenchers widely uneasy of the Government's handling of the crisis.

How matters pan out in Leicester over the next fortnight could prove pivotal on the national stage.

As a more light-hearted footnote to all this, I opened my email on Lockdown Extra, Day One, to find one fro Specsavers. It said my eye test is overdue. Priceless.